And then there was much rejoicing.
All across the college football world, there were plenty of smiles Thursday night, at least everywhere outside of Eugene, Ore. Arizona’s 34-24 win over the Ducks gives us yet another wacky turn and twist in a wild, improbable season.
Oregon, ranked second in the BCS, didn’t have quite the control over its destiny that many believed. Why? Because Kansas probably would’ve moved into the top two if it won out, and LSU was going to be cemented in the top spot if it could win its final three games. Still, it was certainly going to be interesting.
Ducks QB Dennis Dixon, the Heisman front-runner, didn’t necessarily have the trophy locked up, but he was going to be in the top two and likely would’ve won by default if he could’ve led his team to wins over Arizona, UCLA and Oregon State.
It might not be fair, but after his knee injury early against Arizona, he’s likely out of the race, though he will likely finish in the top three. It’s cruel, but that’s part of the deal when it comes to injuries and the Heisman. Ask Michigan RB Mike Hart.
But now the picture has become much, much clearer for the national title. Basically, here’s the deal: (Warning: Take a deep breath, put a log on the fire, get some cocoa and try to relax. Digest the dizzying array of scenarios about to be thrown at you.)
1) LSU controls its own destiny
It already did, but now the possibility of any debate is over. The Tigers have the best résumé of any team — dominant wins over Virginia Tech and Mississippi State and victories over Florida, Auburn and Alabama. If they win out (wins over Arkansas and in the SEC Championship), the Tigers are in the BCS Championship.
2) The Big 12 champion will likely play for the national championship
Shake-up in College Football
New bowl scenario BCS Championship
LSU vs. Oklahoma
Rose Bowl
Michigan vs. ASU
Fiesta Bowl
Oregon vs. Missouri
Orange Bowl
Va. Tech vs. West Virginia
Sugar Bowl
Ohio St. vs. Boise St.
Likely Heisman Finish 1. Tim Tebow, QB Florida
2. Dennis Dixon, QB Oregon
3. Glenn Dorsey, DT LSU
It’s a no-brainer if Kansas beats Iowa State and Missouri and beats the likely South representative, Oklahoma, in the Big 12 title game. As the only unbeaten BCS conference team (and likely to move from three to two if it can get a win over the Cyclones), KU controls its own destiny.
But the same goes for Oklahoma. The Sooners are the second-most talented team in the mix right now, just behind LSU, and the pollsters know it. If they can beat Texas Tech and Oklahoma State and then get a win over the Missouri/Kansas winner in the Big 12 title game, they’re in the national championship.
The big, screaming winner on Thursday night was Missouri. At No. 5 in last week’s BCS rankings, it’s considered the third team in the Big 12 mix. Now, with a win over Kansas State this week and a win over Kansas, the Big 12 title game would be in essence a semifinal for a shot at the national title.
Assuming the Sooners win their final two regular season games, to win the Big 12 title Mizzou will likely have to beat the No. 2 team in the nation in back-to-back weeks (with the assumption that KU will be ranked second, and then OU would move up if Missouri beats the Jayhawks in Kansas City).
Got all that? It’s simple, really. If the winner of the Big 12 Championship doesn’t lose the rest of the way, it’ll be playing for the national championship.
3) Realistically, West Virginia, Ohio State and Arizona State need LSU to lose and could use the Big 12 to become wacky
In a perfect world for the Mountaineers, Buckeyes and Sun Devils … LSU loses, likely in the SEC title game, and there’s a big upset of the eventual Big 12 champion. It’s not a crazy scenario for Oklahoma to lose at Texas Tech and still win the Big 12 Championship. Missouri could certainly gag at Kansas State and still beat Kansas and OU. Even if OU loses to Texas Tech or Kansas State and KU finishes the year 12-1, with the only defeat being in the Big 12 title game, the Big 12 won’t get a team in the national championship.
It’s really not that complicated. Basically, there are seven teams in the national championship chase. Two will be eliminated from the three Big 12 teams. LSU is in unless it loses, and then let the debate begin if all chaos breaks loose.
So let’s say LSU loses and/or the eventual Big 12 champion finishes the season with two losses. And then let’s say West Virginia, Ohio State and Arizona State all win out. What would be the pecking order of the three?
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1) Arizona State: With wins over USC and Arizona, who now has plenty of cachet after the win over Oregon, ASU would likely get the benefit of the doubt by the voters and would be moved up in the human polls and sent to New Orleans.
2) West Virginia: The big win just isn’t there. Style points are a must over the final few weeks.
3) Ohio State: Beating Michigan just isn’t going to carry the weight it would’ve had the Wolverines beaten Wisconsin. The voters will likely continue to punish the Buckeyes for the home loss to Illinois. However, that could all change if OSU destroys Michigan 52-7 in Ann Arbor.
Again, it’s all not as difficult as it appears, and things will clear up further after this week. And then there’s the Heisman race. If it’s not Dennis Dixon, then the front-runner and the one to beat for the greatest individual award in all of sport is … um … yeah.
Is it Florida QB Tim Tebow? At the moment, he certainly deserves it as the nation’s second most efficient passer behind Oklahoma’s Sam Bradford. He has 19 rushing touchdowns and has carried the Florida offense. But he’s a sophomore and the Gators have lost three times.
Is it West Virginia QB Pat White? He has certainly been dynamic enough and had his Heisman moment with the touchdown dash to beat Louisville. He’s seventh in the nation in passing efficiency and has rushed for 803 yards and 10 touchdowns despite missing a little bit of time with injuries. However, many voters will mentally split their White votes with Mountaineer RB Steve Slaton.
Source: What does Oregon’s loss mean?