From LSU down to West Virginia, the teams ranked second through sixth last week all moved up one spot with Ohio State freefalling from the unquestioned number one to an also-ran seventh. Not only did the Buckeyes topple, but they fell so far that any dream of being in the discussion along with the other one-loss teams for a spot in the BCS championship game is now gone.
Things will get more and more interesting over the next few weeks, with the Big 12 playing a bigger role in the debate. LSU isn’t just number one, it’s number one with a 25-mile wide gap before getting to Oregon. The Ducks are on a relative island, a solid 0.0289 ahead of Kansas, but if the Jayhawks win out that’ll mean they’ll have beaten No. 5 Missouri to get to No. 4 Oklahoma in the Big 12 championship to go 13-0. As the lone unbeaten among the BCS conferences, the pollsters would all but assure Mark Mangino’s club of a spot in the title game, meaning Oregon will be out in the cold.
What happens if Oklahoma wins out? That’ll mean it’ll have beaten either No. 3 Kansas, or what will be No. 3 or 4 Missouri if the Tigers beat the Jayhawks. Will that be enough to leapfrog the Sooners over the Ducks? The same question applies to Missouri, who will have beaten No. 3 Kansas and No. 4 Oklahoma if it wins the Big 12 championship. Assuming Chase Daniel and the boys get by Kansas State this week, will that be enough to get by Oregon?
For the Ducks, it’s all about style points now. Playing at Arizona, at UCLA and then getting Oregon State at home in the Civil War, there aren’t any chances left to make an impact on a national scale. That’s why it’ll be vital to be razor sharp. Even a close win might mean the national championship dream is gone.
College football’s best shots
Of course, things quickly change again if LSU gets upset by Arkansas in the regular season finale or in the SEC championship game. In other words, there’s plenty of football yet to be played, and plenty of arguments and debates out there to keep the message boards and talk shows buzzing.
Also remember how the WAC fits into the mix. If a non-BCS team finishes in the top 12 it’s automatically in, or if it finishes in the top 16, and ahead of a champion of BCS conference, it’s in. Hawaii stayed at 16 this week, but Boise State moved up from 20 to 18 and within range to potentially move up much higher as other teams start to lose. If the Broncos and Warriors don’t lose again until they play each other on November 23rd, the winner will almost be assured of an at-large spot.
Don’t forget that the BCS takes the entire season into account, so there will be wild changes from the computers as the year goes on, but the two human polls will be the biggest factors.
The Big Winners: The three top Big 12 teams (Kansas, Oklahoma and Missouri), USC (17th to 11th), Clemson (21st to 15th) The Big Losers: Ohio State (1st to 7th), Boston College (8th to 17th), Michigan (12th to 21st)
1. LSU, Score: 0.9802
Last Week: 2
The Tigers have moved up to the number one spot with enough of a cushion over everyone else to be assured of a spot in the national championship if they win out. With Arkansas and the SEC Championship still to play, getting respect from the rest of the schedule isn’t an issue. The computers certainly think this is the most deserving team with four of the six putting it in the top spot. It’s not just about maintaining focus and winning out. Style points probably don’t matter at this point.
Predicted wins: at Ole Miss, Arkansas, SEC Championship
Predicted losses: None
Predicted record: 12-1
Predicted bowl: BCS Championship
Toughest test: Arkansas (if not the SEC Championship)
2. Oregon, Score: 0.9383
Last Week: 3
If the computers don’t buy into Oregon now, which they don’t when it comes to a spot in the top two, they never will. Of course it all comes down to the human polls, and they’ll be debating the idea of the Ducks vs. the Big 12 champion for the next few weeks. It won’t just be enough to win right now, the wins have to be dominating. As crazy as this might sound, the play of QB Dennis Dixon in his Heisman hunt will play a big role. If he rolls over the final three weeks and wins the big prize, the pollsters might like the idea of seeing what he can do against LSU, assuming the Tigers make it in.
Predicted wins: at UCLA, Oregon State
Predicted losses: at Arizona
Predicted record: 10-2
Predicted bowl: Fiesta
Toughest test: at Arizona
3. Kansas, Score: 0.9094
Last Week: 4
The general sense is that if Kansas wins out, it’s in the national title game. It’ll be the only unbeaten team from a BCS conference, and it’ll have beaten Oklahoma and Missouri to get to 13-0. Two of the six computers already have the Jayhawks number one, and more will follow suit over the coming weeks if the wins keep on coming. However, things could quickly change with a loss to Missouri … namely going from the brink of the Big 12 title, and within range of the national championship, to out of the BCS entirely with the Big 12 title combatants likely to get the two spots. Remember, no conference can get more than two teams in.
Predicted wins: Iowa State
Predicted losses: Missouri
Predicted record: 11-1
Predicted bowl: Cotton Bowl
Toughest test: Missouri
4. Oklahoma, Score: 0.8540
Last Week: 5
Still well out of range of a top two spot, OU needs to make a big splash over the final few weeks, and that includes a dominant performance in the Big 12 title game. At worst, if the Sooners win out they’ll go to their second straight Fiesta Bowl, and even if they lose the Big 12 title game, if they win their final two regular season games they’ll likely do no worse than get an at-large BCS bid.
Predicted wins: Oklahoma State, at Texas Tech, Big 12 Championship
Predicted losses: None
Predicted record: 12-1
Predicted bowl: BCS Championship
Toughest test: Big 12 Championship
5. Missouri, Score: 0.8096
Last Week: 6
There’s still a wait-and-see attitude with the Tigers. Likely too far out of range to be in the national title discussion, even if they beat Kansas and Oklahoma, they’ll need to be impressive down the stretch. However, there will be a groundswell of support for them if they avenge the loss to the Sooners, which came at OU, and if they beat Kansas with ease. The computers aren’t impressed yet, even with a win over Illinois being taken into account. That’ll all change with a Big 12 title. Predicted wins: at Kansas State, Kansas
Predicted losses: Big 12 Championship
Predicted record: 11-2
Predicted bowl: Fiesta Bowl
Toughest test: Kansas (if not Big 12 Championship)
6. West Virginia, Score: 0.7863
Last Week: 7
The Ohio State loss was step one, but now the Mountaineers need a slew of other big things to happen to get close to the two spot. LSU and Oregon losses might do it, since it’s almost certain that two Big 12 teams wouldn’t play each other for the national title. Here’s the dream scenario, and it’s not all that far-fetched. LSU loses in the SEC title game, Oregon loses at Arizona, Oklahoma loses to Texas Tech but wins the Big 12 championship. If that happens, and West Virginia wins out, it’s in.
Predicted wins: at Cincinnati, Connecticut, Pitt
Predicted losses: None
Predicted record: 11-1
Predicted bowl: Sugar Bowl
Toughest test: at Cincinnati
7. Ohio State, Score: 0.7744
Last Week: 1
The Buckeyes can talk all they want about the Rose Bowl being important, but the loss to Illinois was crippling for a team that had everything set up perfectly to play in the national championship. While the BCS title hopes are gone, they can still snag an at-large bid even if they lose to Michigan. Outside of a 75-0 loss to Michigan, Jim Tressel will be in his fifth BCS game in six years.
Predicted wins: None
Predicted losses: at Michigan
Predicted record: 10-2
Predicted bowl: Orange
Toughest test: at Michigan
8. Arizona State, Score: 0.7500
Last Week: 9
ASU has a BCS bid in its grasp. Beat USC, beat Arizona, and it’s in one of the big money games. If Dennis Erickson’s crew wins out, and Oregon slips, then it’s in the Rose Bowl. If not, it’s likely to be Fiesta Bowl-bound against the Big 12 champion. If the Sun Devils somehow blow out USC, and then beat Arizona, it’ll be interesting to see how the pollsters view them if a slew of upsets happen up top.
Predicted wins: USC, Arizona
Predicted losses: None
Predicted record: 11-1
Predicted bowl: Rose Bowl
Toughest test: USC
9. Georgia, Score: 0.6724M
Last Week: 10
Georgia is in a strange spot. Not in control of its own SEC destiny, it needs to beat Kentucky and hope for Tennessee to slip up to have a shot at playing LSU. Even so, by winning out, it might have a chance at an at-large BCS bid as long as the Vols, assuming they’re in the SEC title game, don’t beat the Tigers. The BCS will want to have two SEC teams, but if the Boise State - Hawaii winner gets in, it’ll be hard for the Dawgs to knock out a one-loss Arizona State, a second Big 12 team, or Ohio State, if it loses to Michigan.
Predicted wins: Kentucky, at Georgia Tech
Predicted losses: SEC Championship
Predicted record: 11-2
Predicted bowl: Sugar Bowl Toughest test: at Georgia Tech (if not SEC Championship)
10. Virginia Tech, Score: 0.6133
Last Week: 11
The Hokies aren’t necessarily in range for an at-large spot, needing to win the ACC title game to get one of the big money games. Even so, the dominant fourth quarter win over Florida State has earned enough goodwill for a top ten slot. But again with two losses already, it’s ACC title or bust.
Predicted wins: Miami, at Virginia, ACC Championship
Predicted losses: None
Predicted record: 11-2
Predicted bowl: Orange Bowl
Toughest test: at Virginia (if not the ACC Championship)
In Range
11. USC (last week: 17th)
12. Florida (last week: 15th)
13. Texas (last week: 14th)
14. Virginia (last week: 19th)
15. Clemson (last week: 21st)
16. Hawaii (last week: 16th)
17. Boston College (last week: 8th)
18. Boise State (last week: 20th)
19. Illinois (last week: 31st)
20. Tennessee (last week: 24th
BCS StandingsRkTeamW-LHarrisCoachesCPU %BCSRkPoints%RkPoints%PrevAvg1LSU9-112742.979311457.9713.99002.9802Oregon8-122651.946821407.9380.93003.9383Kansas10-042498.892141344.8960.94004.9094Oklahoma9-132580.921431366.9107.73005.8545Missouri9-162248.802961194.7960.83006.8106West Virginia8-152278.813651238.8253.72007.7867Ohio State10-172100.750071145.7633.81001.7748Arizona State9-181919.685481042.6947.87009.7509Georgia8-291840.657191005.6700.690010.67210Virginia Tech8-2101665.594610923.6153.630011.61311USC8-2131561.557513814.5427.480017.52712Florida7-3141335.476814686.4573.580015.50513Texas9-2121639.585411844.5627.250014.46614Virginia9-217973.347517547.3647.510019.40715Clemson8-216985.351816548.3653.460021.39216Hawaii9-0111641.586112842.5613.010016.38617Boston College8-218928.331418505.3367.42008.36318Boise State9-1151052.375715556.3707.040020.26219Illinois8-320542.193621271.1807.360031.24520Tennessee7-319655.233919306.2040.280024.23921Michigan8-322440.157123259.1727.230012.18722Cincinnati8-224373.133225163.1087.310030.18423Kentucky7-321526.187920304.2027.130025.17424Connecticut8-226239.085426103.0687.290013.14825Wisconsin8-323393.140424226.1507.070029.120
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Source: Big 12 will determine who gets title shot