SMQ has a great analysis of the Southern Cal run over the past five years compared to the legendary championship runs of Nebraska, Florida State and Miami.
When you break down the numbers, a surprising trend starts to appear that would seem to indicate that the USC Trojan dynasty may be coming to an end.
SMQ shows us that Miami’s 2000 season nearly mirrors USC’s 2003 season: only one loss, won a huge BCS game, and finished the season ranked #2 (OK, so the Trojans finished split 1 & 2).
From there it really gets interesting, as the Hurricanes would blow through the 2001 season undefeated, behind proven, experienced talent. In 2004, USC went undefeated, winning the national championship behind proven, experienced talent. 2002 & 2005 similarities show both teams being upset in the national championship game, finishing the year with one loss and ranked #2.
You can start looking for hints of decay in those final championship seasons – Miami had to come from behind and watch a field goal sail wide to win at Florida State in 2002, USC had to rally from an 18-point halftime deficit at Arizona State in 2005 – but it gets really interesting when you begin to think of John David Booty as Brock Berlin, especially as they left the same high school as the top-rated quarterback in the country two years apart, waited their turn behind a championship-winning all-American, and inherited a balanced system seemingly stocked with top shelf talent and primed for instant success.
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It seems obvious now Miami was on its way to ruin, but it didn’t then: the ‘Canes beat Florida State in the Orange Bowl and began 2004 an absurdly talented team still ranked in the top five. It remained there until a stunning loss at North Carolina in October as a 22-point favorite. If there’s a doppelganger to USC’s loss to Stanford, there it is – on the Miami curve, SC is in 2004 and another year and a half or so from true collapse.
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In Miami’s case, hindsight again tells us the loss to UNC didn’t happen in a vacuum, but was rather an early sign of serious cracks in Miami’s facade. We know the story from there: the ‘Canes rode talent and pride as far as it would last, which was roughly through the 2005 regular season, one that featured a tough early loss (at Florida State), an affirming win (27-7 at Virginia Tech), a truly deflating loss (at home to Georgia Tech) and a de-mythifier against a revved-up equal to close the year (40-3 to LSU in the Peach).
Another glaring similarity, it appears that USC is losing some of its focus & intensity in practice, just as Miami did during the late Coker years.
Perhaps no one predicted USC’s loss to Stanford, but fullback Stanley Havili said the Trojans lacked their usual intensity all week, a rare admission regarding Pete Carroll’s program, where enthusiasm is always priority No.1.
“It seemed like last week, intensity dropped off and the attitude of playing for USC dropped off,” Havili said.
The redshirt freshman said the Cardinal had nothing to do with the lethargic attitude.
“I don’t think it was because it was Stanford,” he said.
SMQ goes on to point this trend certainly seems to exist, but that that USC still controls its own fate.
We don’t know the story for USC, and, the way recruiting has gone there, it might be a totally different arc. Three stunning losses in a year and a half might be as random and untelling of doom as each would seem to be when taken by itself. Matt Sanchez and/or Aaron Corp and/or Mitch Mustain might be the towering pocket god top-rated Kyle Wright has never been. I don’t mean to suggest USC is not still very, very good. In old coaching culinary parlance, certainly Carroll still has the chickens.
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I only mean to say that our perceptions are shaped by the recent past more than the present, and we typically hold on to them far too long in the face of mounting evidence to the contrary, until something truly drastic happens to change them.
(emphasis added)
SMQ points out that the final straw for Miami was the crushing loss to Louisville. The jury is still out for USC, but was the Stanford game their Louisville defeat?
I could only excerpt a few peices of SMQ’s entire article, but it is truly very well done. (No surprise with SMQ.) Run — don’t walk! — over to SMQ and read the whole thing.
Source: feeds.feedburner.com
